The active 2024 severe weather season continues across the United States. Severe weather stats through May 16th show well above average tornado reports with 806 (average is 594). Wind and hail reports are also slightly above average compared to normal. While this year has been active, it is far from over as the pattern is expected to shift, once again yielding more conducive severe conditions across the Great Plains into the Midwest.
In the short-term, upper level troughing will remain across the eastern and southeastern United States. This will focus the severe weather threat primarily into the southeastern U.S. into the next couple of days.
However, late this weekend into early next week the pattern will turn more active again. This will be thanks to upper level ridging building in across the southern and eastern United states that will allow for the return of a warm, moist southerly flow of air across central and eastern portions of the country. An upper-level trough will build into the western U.S. pushing east into the central U.S. mid next week. This type of pattern is a classic setup for severe weather threats to develop across the Great Plains states initially, then spread east with time. In fact, this is the same general pattern we have already experienced multiple times this year!
The severe weather threat will begin Sunday across portions of the central Plains and will remain in this area for Monday as well. Nebraska, Kansas, and Missouri will see the initial severe weather threats late this weekend into early next week. Damaging winds and large hail will be the primary severe weather threats, but a few tornadoes are possible.
Tuesday and Wednesday the severe weather threat shifts to the east. Data suggests the potential for widespread severe weather Tuesday across portions of Iowa, Illinois, Wisconsin, and Missouri. This threat should extend further east on Wednesday into the Ohio Valley, impacting Indiana, Ohio, Illinois, and Michigan. While it is still too early to have confidence in timing, locations, and the extent of the threats (especially individually), data suggests that all hazards could be possible.
In the long-range, data continues to suggest the pattern will remain favorable for severe weather. This will occur as the environment reloads and more upper-level waves move across the central portions of the country as we head toward the end of May.
There are still many details to be ironed out as we get closer to the forecast period. We encourage everyone to have a reliable way to monitor forecasts and receive weather alerts when the weather turns active. The NEW TDS Weather mobile app is a great way to do this! Features include:
· NWS location-based alerts (watches, warnings, advisories)
· Lightning alerts
· Thunderstorm approaching and rotating thunderstorm approaching alerts
· Local forecasts
· Radar
· SPC outlooks
· And much more!
The app is now available to download for FREE in the Apple App Store and the Google Play Store for Android users! Give it a download and stay ahead of the active spring weather!
Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
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