The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) released its initial forecast today for the 2024-2025 winter season. This forecast comes as the waters of the equatorial Pacific continue to cool, transitioning from El Niño (the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO) last winter to La Niña (the cold phase of ENSO) for this winter. This shift in the weather pattern will impact winter weather across the United States during the upcoming winter season.
Typical La Niña Pattern
La Niña occurs when the waters in the equatorial Pacific cool. Off the west coast of the United States, upwelling increases, bringing cold water to the surface. The cold waters, in turn, push the polar jet stream to the north. This phenomenon favors colder conditions in the northern tier of the U.S. while resulting in warmer conditions in the Southeast.
Precipitation patterns are expected to favor a few areas with wetter-than-normal conditions: one in the Pacific Northwest and the other in the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley regions. However, drier conditions are more typical across the southern portions of the United States, extending from Southern California east to Florida.
NOAA Temperature Forecast
The official winter forecast from NOAA closely resembles the typical La Niña pattern, with only minor variations in temperature and precipitation probabilities noted. Here is the latest information.
Warmer-than-average temperatures are expected from the southern tier of the United States to the eastern Great Lakes, the eastern seaboard, New England, and northern Alaska. The likelihood of these temperatures is highest along the Gulf Coast and across most of Texas.
Below-average temperatures are most likely in southern Alaska, with a slight likelihood of below-average temperatures extending from the Pacific Northwest to the northern High Plains.
The remaining areas have an equal likelihood of experiencing below-average, near-average, or above-average seasonal mean temperatures.
NOAA Precipitation Forecast
Wetter-than-average conditions are most likely in the Great Lakes states, with above-average precipitation also expected in northern and western Alaska, the Pacific Northwest, and across the northern tier of the United States. These probabilities are particularly strong in parts of Ohio, Indiana, and Kentucky.
The highest probability of drier-than-average conditions exists in the states bordering the Gulf of Mexico, as well as in Texas and southern New Mexico.
Much of California, the Central Plains states, and the I-95 corridor from Boston to Washington, D.C., have equal chances of experiencing below-average, near-average, or above-average seasonal total precipitation.
Seasonal Forecast Guidance
Seasonal model guidance closely aligns with both the typical La Niña pattern and NOAA’s official outlook. However, the area where we observe the most variability in model data pertains to temperature. The CanCIPS model indicates a greater probability of below-normal temperatures across the northern U.S. and a broader area of colder air. However, ECMWF (EURO) guidance suggests widespread warmth across the continental United States.
The area where there is greater consensus in seasonal forecast models is precipitation. Most models indicate above-average precipitation across parts of the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes regions, as well as in certain areas in the Pacific Northwest. Additionally, drier conditions are expected in southern portions of the United States.
Seasonal weather forecasting presents significant challenges and adjustments to this forecast are anticipated in the coming months. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) will publish an updated Winter Outlook on November 21. You can access the complete NOAA article by clicking HERE. TDS Weather will provide our official Winter Outlook to clients on November 7, 2024. Are you interested in becoming a client and receiving the winter outlook? Email us at info@tdsweather.com for more information!
Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
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