As we navigate the peak of the Tropical Atlantic hurricane season, further tropical development is anticipated. Late this weekend into early next week, a broad area of low pressure is expected to form across the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has already designated this area with a 20% chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next seven days.
Forecast models are in strong agreement as we approach the early to middle portions of next week, with an area of low pressure expected to develop. Most current model guidance indicates that this low pressure system will form between Cuba and the Yucatán Peninsula from Sunday to Tuesday. This system could bring heavy rainfall, storm surge, rip currents, and strong winds to parts of Central America early next week.
Later next week, forecast guidance indicates that the area of low pressure will move into the Gulf of Mexico. However, there remains a significant range in the long-term track and intensity of this system. Much of the ensemble data continues to suggest a more eastern trajectory for this tropical low, but there have been some westward trends observed in both ensemble members and operational models.
(EURO ENSEMBLE MEMBER PRESSURE CENTERS ON 9/27 @ 8 PM EDT)
There is a threat of impacts along the Gulf Coast late next week into the following weekend from this potential system. While many questions remain unanswered, those with interests in the northwest Caribbean and along the Gulf Coast should continue to monitor forecasts for the latest weather updates.
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