Convection continues across the western Caribbean this evening in association with Potential Tropical Cyclone 9. Over the next 12 to 24 hours, this tropical disturbance is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Helene. This system will move through the northwest Caribbean in the next 24 to 36 hours before entering the Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday.
Current forecasts predict that Helene will strengthen into a hurricane by early Wednesday morning as it traverses the open waters between the Yucatán Peninsula and Cuba. Subsequently, model data indicates that the storm will shift north to northeast, targeting Florida’s Gulf Coast, with landfall anticipated on Thursday afternoon into the evening.
18Z MONDAY TROPICAL & GLOBAL MODEL FORECAST TRACKS
The current National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast predicts that the center of circulation (eye) will make landfall near Carrabelle, FL. However, the cone of uncertainty extends from Fort Walton Beach, FL, to the Clearwater, FL area. The latest NHC intensity forecast indicates that Hurricane Helene is expected to reach Category 3 status before landfall with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph.
Model intensity forecasts range from a strong Category 1 to a strong Category 3 hurricane at landfall. However, several models have consistently suggested the possibility of a stronger hurricane, with intensity potentially reaching Category 4 or even Category 5 as the storm approaches the Gulf Coast later this week.
TROPICAL MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE
Overall, confidence in the track of the system is generally higher than confidence in the intensity forecast. Over the next couple of days, the tropical system will move into a very favorable environment characterized by low wind shear and warm ocean waters. However, conditions could become less favorable on Thursday as the storm approaches the coast. This change would be due to the potential for stronger wind shear from the trough across the Mississippi River Valley, along with the possibility of dry air entrainment.
Hurricane-force winds will not be the only threat posed by Hurricane Helene. Heavy rainfall, flooding, potentially significant storm surges, and tornadoes are also possible for residents along the Gulf Coast of Florida. Some of these threats may even extend inland late in the week and into the weekend. There are still many uncertainties regarding the storm's exact track, intensity, and associated hazards. However, those in the path of this system should begin preparations and closely monitor forecasts in the coming days.
WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) 5 DAY FLOOD RISK
The TDS Weather mobile application is a great way to track the incoming tropical weather! The app allows you to check daily and hourly forecasts, monitor satellite and radar, receive alerts if impactful weather is headed your way, AND you can view NHC forecasts and tropical weather spaghetti models as shown below! Download it for FREE from the Apple App Store or the Google Play Store today.
Google Play: https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=com.tds.wx
Thermodynamic Solutions (“TDS Weather”) provides professional weather consulting services to a variety of industries including: professional and minor league sports, snow removal and landscaping, golf courses and turf management, colleges and universities, and hospital networks. With nearly two decades of living and forecasting in the Ohio Valley region, our meteorologists provide custom, reliable forecasts that help clients SAVE and MAKE money in their daily operations. Our services include commercial and agricultural forecasting in the short and long ranges, lightning alerts and on-site hazardous weather monitoring, 24/7 on-call decision support services, forensic weather reporting, and more! For weather consulting inquiries, please contact us at info@tdsweather.com.
Comentarios