It has been an active spring and summer across the Midwest in 2024. We’ve experienced periods of severe weather, flooding, and recent impacts from the remnants of Hurricane Beryl, which brought additional flooding and tornadoes to the region. While there have been few breaks from this active weather pattern, the forecast indicates a quieter period in the short term. However, brace yourselves—the weather looks set to turn volatile again by the weekend.
(RAINFALL FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE BERYL)
Over the next couple of days, weak waves of energy will traverse the Midwest. As they do, expect areas of afternoon rain and thunderstorms to develop today and tomorrow. While these storms may bring lightning, locally heavy rain, and gusty winds, widespread severe weather is not anticipated.
As we progress into the weekend, the mid-to-upper-level flow will shift northwesterly across the region. Within this atmospheric pattern, several mid-to-upper-level impulses will move through from Saturday to Tuesday. The conditions will be hot, humid, and unstable, creating the potential for Mesoscale Convective Systems (MCSs) to form daily.
The initial area of focus will be Saturday afternoon into Saturday evening across the Upper Midwest. This coincides with a couple of short-wave impulses moving across the region. Keep an eye out, as two areas of strong to severe weather could emerge during this time.
The first is across eastern Iowa into western Illinois, where a more southerly mid-level impulse is forecast. The second area of severe weather is forecast in portions of North Dakota, Minnesota, and western Wisconsin. Overall, damaging winds would be the most probable hazard for both areas, but hail and a few tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
On Sunday and Monday, a couple of mid-level waves will move across portions of Wisconsin, northern Illinois, Michigan, and perhaps Indiana. Again, with a warm, unstable environment in place, these waves and impulses will likely spark daily severe weather and MCS threats across portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley regions.
(700 MB VORTICITY MON @ 8 PM EDT)
Beyond the Sunday–Monday period, the potential exists for additional areas of severe weather. Machine learning guidance from Colorado State University shows the south and easterly shift with a daily severe probability early to mid-next week.
(CSU MACHINE LEARNING DAY 3-8 SEVERE PROBABILITY)
Overall, details will need to be fine-tuned in the coming days regarding the timing, severity, and placement of each round of thunderstorms. Make sure to stay tuned for the latest into the weekend!
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